Current Economics
Today's Market Brief — August 25, 2026
What's changed since our last update on August 21 — Bank of Canada policy is unchanged and not repeated below.
Published 2026-08-25 · Educational information only
Markets Overview
The Canada-U.S. tariff truce collapsed over the weekend: talks failed and the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods Saturday, with Prime Minister Carney vowing dollar-for-dollar retaliation starting September 8 alongside $25 billion in support for affected workers and businesses. Markets have shrugged off the escalation so far — the TSX has posted gains for three straight sessions, while U.S. indexes climbed again today.
Canadian Equities (TSX)
The S&P/TSX Composite has kept climbing despite the tariffs: up 93.89 points (+0.26%) Monday to 36,714.12, then adding roughly another 0.3% today to around 36,797, helped by technology shares and strong bank earnings — Bank of Nova Scotia rose 4.4% on a quarterly profit beat.
U.S. Equities (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq)
U.S. stocks also extended their advance today: the S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37, the Dow jumped 0.98% to 53,277.01, and the Nasdaq gained 0.43% to 26,180.46, with chip stocks providing support.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.70% Monday, tracking lower oil prices, but remains close to the cycle's 20-month high near 4.75%. Markets are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)
The loonie weakened as the new U.S. tariffs took effect and President Trump threatened further measures, though it has since stabilized alongside the TSX's gains.
Commodities (Oil & Gold)
Gold extended its rally to about US$4,657 an ounce (+1.19%), supported by the trade-tension backdrop and positioning ahead of this week's Jackson Hole symposium. Oil eased, with WTI near US$85.18 a barrel and Brent near US$91.06.
Inflation & Economic Data
Canada's June retail sales, released Friday, beat expectations: sales rose 0.6% to $74.3 billion (versus a 0.4% estimate), with core retail sales — excluding gas stations and vehicle dealers — up 1.2%. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate points to a 0.8% pullback in July, though that figure is subject to revision. The Bank of Canada's next decision remains September 2.
Global Markets Snapshot
The bigger story remains the trade dispute: Canada's retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect September 8, and markets will be watching for any further escalation or de-escalation between now and then, alongside the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium Thursday and Friday.
What This Means
Day-to-day market moves are normal and are not a reason to change a long-term plan on their own. If today's news raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react alone.
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