Current Economics
Today's Market Brief — September 4, 2026
What's changed since our last update on September 1.
Published 2026-09-04 · Educational information only
Markets Overview
The week's headline event was today's August jobs report, which came in far hotter than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, decisively beating the 55,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Stocks initially dropped on rate-hike anxiety in Friday morning trading before reversing to close broadly higher, capping an eventful week that also included Wednesday's Bank of Canada hold and a sharp Thursday rally on the TSX.
Canadian Equities (TSX)
The S&P/TSX Composite jumped 541.51 points (+1.50%) Thursday to 36,633.12, its best session in weeks, and kept edging higher today, trading near 36,644 in late trading as sentiment steadied after a soft start to the week.
U.S. Equities (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq)
U.S. stocks reversed an early slide to close sharply higher today: the Dow rose 1.2% (+624.16 points) to 53,686.11, the S&P 500 gained 1.1% to 7,747.71, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.4% (+366.23 points) to 26,584.06 — even as the stronger-than-expected jobs data reinforced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
Treasury yields stayed elevated near this cycle's highs as the blowout jobs report reinforced the case for a September hike, though equities shrugged off the initial reaction by the close.
Federal Reserve & Rate Expectations
Odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's September 15–16 meeting rose to about 60% on the CME FedWatch tool, up from roughly 49% the day before the jobs report. Attention now turns to next Friday's U.S. CPI report (September 11), which economists say will be decisive for whether the Fed actually proceeds with a hike.
Bank of Canada & Central Banks
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday for a seventh consecutive time, as widely expected. The Bank pointed to the ongoing Middle East conflict keeping energy prices elevated and the new Canada-U.S. tariffs and countermeasures as key risks, while noting that core inflation measures have stayed close to 2% even as headline CPI hovers near 3% on higher gasoline prices.
Commodities (Oil & Gold)
Gold eased slightly to about $4,471 an ounce (-0.07%) as the strong jobs data and rising rate-hike odds weighed on bullion. Oil stayed elevated, with WTI trading near $90.71 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East supply concerns.
Global Markets Snapshot
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods are set to take effect Tuesday, September 8, adding another variable heading into next week's countdown to the Fed's September 15–16 decision.
What This Means
Day-to-day market moves are normal and are not a reason to change a long-term plan on their own. If today's news raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react alone.
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