Today's Market Brief — September 10, 2026

Markets Overview

Markets fell for a fourth straight session today as a fresh Middle East escalation sent oil above $100 a barrel for the first time in months. The U.S. military said it destroyed five Iranian vessels this week after an attempted attack on a Navy warship, Iran retaliated against U.S. ships and a base in Jordan, and a Tehran-backed group set oil facilities ablaze in Saudi Arabia — reviving fears of a broader supply disruption. On top of that, the Canada-U.S. trade dispute escalated from tariffs to outright import bans, and markets are bracing for tomorrow's pivotal U.S. inflation report.

Canadian Equities (TSX)

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% Wednesday to 35,907 on the trade dispute, then dropped a further 1.11% today to a more-than-one-month low near 35,510, as oil-driven inflation fears and the deepening trade dispute weighed on sentiment.

U.S. Equities (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq)

U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to four sessions: the Dow fell 316.56 points (-0.6%) to 52,064.10, the S&P 500 dropped 0.58% to 7,591.70, and the Nasdaq fell 0.65% to 26,081.72, as surging oil prices and jumping bond yields weighed on risk appetite.

Bond Yields & Interest Rates

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to about 4.91% today, its highest level since November 2023, as oil-driven inflation fears pushed traders to price in either a Fed rate hike next week or a 'higher for longer' policy stance.

Federal Reserve & Rate Expectations

Odds of a 25-basis-point hike at next week's September 15–16 Fed meeting rose to about 63%, up from 60%, after producer prices accelerated to 5.4% annually on a 4.2% surge in energy costs. Tomorrow's August CPI report (Friday, September 11) is now the single data point standing between markets and that decision — economists expect headline inflation up 0.4% on the month and core inflation up 0.2%, with a hotter core reading likely to cement hike bets and a cooler one reviving hopes of a hold.

Canada-U.S. Trade Dispute

Hours after Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday, the White House escalated further, announcing new U.S. import bans — not just tariffs — on Canadian motor vehicle-related products, dairy items including whey and molasses, and alcoholic beverages such as beer, wine, cider, whisky, and vodka, plus larger motorcycles and mopeds. The new restrictions are set to take effect September 29.

Commodities (Oil & Gold)

Oil surged on the Middle East escalation: WTI settled at $102.48 a barrel (+6.7%) and Brent at $107.63 (+5.9%), with Brent later pushing toward $105–107 amid fears of a wider regional supply disruption. Gold moved the other way, falling about 1.8% to roughly C$5,981 an ounce, as rising yields and a firmer U.S. dollar outweighed safe-haven demand.

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)

The loonie was little changed, with USD/CAD trading near 1.3833 today, as the currency weighed rising oil prices — typically supportive for the Canadian dollar — against broader U.S. dollar strength tied to rising Fed rate-hike odds.

What This Means

Day-to-day market moves are normal and are not a reason to change a long-term plan on their own. If today's news raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react alone.

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