Current Economics
Expected Market Views — Week Of August 10, 2026
A forward-looking read on what markets are pricing in for this week, and the data that could confirm or reverse it.
Published 2026-08-10 · Educational information only
Heading Into The Week
U.S. stocks enter the week at fresh records: the S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64 Friday, its best five-day run since April, powered by a weak July jobs report that traders read as clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to hold rather than hike in September. The Dow added 151.83 points (+0.28%) to 54,036.93, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.3% to 26,690.62.
What Markets Are Pricing In
Odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting have fallen to around 42%, from 55% a week earlier, with futures now pricing roughly a 56% probability the Fed holds steady — a sharp reversal from the hawkish, dissent-driven pricing of two weeks ago. This week's data will test whether that dovish repricing holds up.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has eased to about 4.64%, down sharply from last week's high near 4.74%, reflecting the shift toward expecting a Fed hold rather than a hike.
Key Data To Watch This Week
Wednesday's U.S. CPI report (July data, released August 12) is the headline event, with consensus expecting headline inflation near 2.8% year over year, up slightly from June's 2.7%, and core CPI edging toward 3.0%. A cooler-than-expected print would likely reinforce the current rate-hold expectations; a hotter one could reopen the hawkish debate. Thursday brings U.S. Producer Price Index and UK GDP data, and Friday brings U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment. Tuesday's RBA rate decision is also on the calendar.
Canadian Context
No major Canadian economic data is scheduled this week, and the Bank of Canada's next rate decision remains September 2. The TSX enters the week near record territory after last week's gains, with sentiment still tied to progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
What This Means
This week's CPI print in particular has the potential to swing sentiment sharply in either direction. Expectations and forecasts are not guarantees, and a single data release can change the picture quickly. If this week's data raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react to one number alone.
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