Current Economics
Expected Market Views — Week Of August 31, 2026
A forward-looking read on what markets are pricing in for this week, and the data that could confirm or reverse it.
Published 2026-08-31 · Educational information only
Heading Into The Week
Markets enter the week digesting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole address. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,712 (-0.25%), the Dow eased to 53,560, and the Nasdaq fell 0.7% as chip stocks pulled back from their recent highs. The TSX enters the week just off Thursday's near-record 36,834 close after a softer Friday session dragged down by commodity shares. U.S. markets are closed Monday for Labour Day.
What Markets Are Pricing In
Warsh's Friday remarks — that inflation's underlying trend "has not meaningfully improved" and the Fed "has more work to do" — reversed weeks of hold-versus-cut speculation into hold-versus-hike. Odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15–16 meeting jumped to about 46%, from roughly 35% a day earlier, while the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose about 6 basis points to 4.30%. This week's U.S. jobs data will be the first real test of whether that repricing holds.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%–4.73% Friday on Warsh's hawkish tone, back near the top of its recent range, while short-term yields moved up more sharply on rising hike odds.
Key Data To Watch This Week
The Bank of Canada delivers its rate decision Wednesday, September 2, with markets widely expecting another hold at 2.25% even as trade tensions with the U.S. complicate the outlook. On the U.S. side: ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS job openings, the Fed's Beige Book, ISM Services, and ADP private payrolls are all due mid-week, ahead of the week's headline event — the August non-farm payrolls report on Friday, September 5, the first jobs reading since Warsh's hawkish pivot and a key input for the September 15–16 Fed meeting.
Canadian Context
The TSX enters the week near record territory after Thursday's 36,834 close, though commodity-sector weakness clipped Friday's session. The loonie has weakened to around 1.39 per U.S. dollar on broad U.S. dollar strength. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods, detailed in our August 25 brief, are set to take effect September 8.
What This Means
Expectations and forecasts are not guarantees, and Friday's hawkish pivot is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift on a single speech. If this week's jobs report or Bank of Canada decision raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react to one data point alone.
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