Current Economics
Expected Market Views — Week Of September 7, 2026
A forward-looking read on what markets are pricing in for this week, and the data that could confirm or reverse it.
Published 2026-09-07 · Educational information only
Heading Into The Week
Markets enter the week having shaken off a blowout August jobs report — nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 against a 55,000 estimate — with stocks recovering to close broadly higher Friday: the Dow at 53,686.11 (+1.2%), the S&P 500 at 7,747.71 (+1.1%), and the Nasdaq at 26,584.06 (+1.4%). The TSX also finished the week strongly, trading near 36,644 after Thursday's 1.50% surge to 36,633.12.
What Markets Are Pricing In
Odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15–16 meeting climbed to about 60% on the CME FedWatch tool, up from roughly 49% just before Friday's jobs report — extending the shift that began with Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech in late August. Whether that pricing holds now depends heavily on next Friday's inflation data.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has stayed near this cycle's highs, with the strong jobs report reinforcing rather than reversing the recent climb in rate expectations.
Key Data To Watch This Week
The week's headline event is the U.S. Consumer Price Index for August, due Friday, September 11 — the last major inflation read before the Fed's September 15–16 meeting, and likely the deciding factor on whether policymakers actually hike. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect Tuesday, September 8.
Canadian Context
The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight decision on September 2, citing Middle East-driven energy costs and the Canada-U.S. tariff dispute as ongoing risks. The TSX enters the week near its recent highs after Thursday's rally, and the loonie has held in a narrow range.
What This Means
Expectations and forecasts are not guarantees, and Friday's reversal is a reminder that markets can shrug off a hot data print as easily as they can react to one. If next week's CPI report or the ongoing tariff dispute raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react to one data point alone.
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