Current Economics
Expected Market Views — Week Of September 28, 2026
A forward-looking read on what markets are pricing in for this week, and the data that could confirm or reverse it.
Published 2026-09-28 · Educational information only
Heading Into The Week
Markets enter the week on a stronger footing after snapping a losing streak: the Dow closed Friday at 51,828.62 (+0.93% on the day, +0.3% on the week), the S&P 500 at 7,743.41 (+1.2% on the week), and the Nasdaq at 27,068.72 (+2% on the week), led by a near-13% weekly surge in Meta Platforms. The TSX enters the week largely flat near 35,800.89. All of this happened even as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.18%, its highest since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
What Markets Are Pricing In
Since Fed Chair Warsh's September rate hike, markets have been pricing in the possibility of a second hike before year-end. This week's data is the most important test of that view so far: a hot PCE print or a resilient jobs report would reinforce hike bets, while a soft print on either could revive hopes that the Fed is done for now.
Bond Yields & Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield's climb to around 5.18% — its highest level since the financial crisis — reflects both the Fed's hawkish tilt and persistent inflation pressure. Whether yields keep climbing or ease back likely hinges on this week's PCE and jobs data.
Key Data To Watch This Week
It's a packed calendar. JOLTS job openings (forecast to ease to about 7.23 million) and the ADP private payrolls report (forecast around +70,000) lead the week, alongside ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to show stronger activity. The PCE price index for August — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is due Wednesday, September 30, with headline inflation forecast to accelerate to 0.4% on the month and core to 0.3%, both up from July's 0.2%. The week culminates Friday, October 2 with September's non-farm payrolls, expected to show a slowdown to roughly 100,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Canadian Context
The TSX enters the week roughly flat after a choppy one, with bank earnings strength offsetting bond-yield and energy-driven inflation concerns. The Bank of Canada's next decision remains October 28. Oil eased late last week on reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement over Persian Gulf tanker traffic, a development worth watching given how much this year's energy-price swings have been tied to that conflict.
What This Means
Expectations and forecasts are not guarantees, and a data-heavy week like this one can shift sentiment quickly in either direction. If this week's inflation or jobs data raises questions about your own portfolio, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session rather than react to one data point alone.
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