This Week In Review
Stocks broke their recent losing streak: the Dow gained 0.3% on the week, snapping three straight weekly declines, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq jumped 2%, helped by a nearly 13% weekly surge in Meta Platforms. Friday alone saw the Dow add 478.64 points (+0.93%) to 51,828.62, the S&P 500 rise 0.51% to 7,743.41, and the Nasdaq gain 0.5% to 27,068.72. The rally came despite the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing to about 5.18% Friday, a level not seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis. The TSX finished nearly flat on the week, closing Friday at 35,800.89 (+0.26%), with bank stocks leading — CIBC rose 2%, Scotiabank 1.5%, and RBC and TD each 1.2%.
What Is Brewing Over The Weekend
Oil pulled back through the week — WTI fell 2.33% to $92.41 and Brent 2.14% to $104.32 — after reports that the U.S. and Iran have moved closer to an agreement to lift naval blockades on tankers in the Persian Gulf and ease economic measures against Tehran. After months of the Strait of Hormuz conflict driving energy prices, any weekend confirmation or setback on that front could move oil sharply before Monday's open.
Week Ahead: What To Watch
It's one of the busiest data weeks of the quarter. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index for August, is due Wednesday, September 30, with both headline and core readings expected to accelerate from July. JOLTS job openings and the ADP private payrolls report land earlier in the week, alongside ISM Manufacturing PMI. Friday, October 2 brings the headline event: September's non-farm payrolls, expected to show a slowdown to around 100,000 jobs added (from August's 162,000) and unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. With the Fed's dot plot pointing to another possible hike this year, this week's data will weigh heavily on that decision. The Bank of Canada's next decision remains October 28.
What This Means
Weekend headlines — especially any update on the U.S.-Iran talks — can move oil and markets sharply before Monday's open. If this week's jobs and inflation data or your own portfolio's exposure to rate-sensitive assets has you wondering whether to adjust something, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session on Monday rather than react to one week's news.
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