Current Economics
Markets are closed for the weekend. Here is a quick recap of the week that was, what is developing over the weekend, and what to watch when trading resumes Monday.
Published 2026-10-03 · Educational information only
The week's big story was Friday's September jobs report, which badly missed expectations: U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs, well below the 84,000 forecast and the prior 12-month average of 45,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Healthcare led the modest gains with 17,000 positions, and earlier months were revised lower. Stocks rallied on the news anyway — the Dow added about 250 points (+0.5%) to 51,176.46, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.2% as Nvidia hit a fresh intraday high above a $5.7 trillion market cap — because a cooling labour market makes an October Fed rate hike look far less likely. The TSX rebounded 347.89 points (+0.99%) Friday to 35,502.65, clawing back Wednesday's near-two-month low on strength in materials, industrials, and tech.
The move in bond yields on Friday was more mixed than the headline jobs miss suggests: the 10-year Treasury yield initially fell on the weak data but reversed through the session to close slightly higher at 5.27%, suggesting the bond market isn't fully convinced the softer labour market closes the door on further Fed moves. The Canadian dollar kept weakening too, with USD/CAD touching 1.4249 — down more than 3% over the past month — even as some bank forecasts still see it firming back toward 1.40 by year-end. Markets have the weekend to digest Friday's data before a comparatively quiet week of data begins Monday.
It's a lighter week after the recent data blitz, but a few events stand out. Monday brings the U.S. ISM Services PMI for September, expected to ease slightly to 55.1 from 55.4 — worth watching beyond the headline for new orders and prices paid. Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes from this quarter's rate hike are the week's main U.S. event, and traders will be parsing them for how divided policymakers were and what would justify another move. Friday brings Canada's own September employment report — the first full month of data since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect — with economists expecting only a modest 5,000-to-9,200 job gain and the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% from 6.4%. Several Treasury auctions through the week will also test demand for U.S. debt with yields near multi-decade highs. The Bank of Canada's next decision remains October 28, and the Fed's next meeting is October 27-28.
A weak jobs report cuts both ways — it's good news for anyone hoping the Fed holds off on another hike, but it's also a sign the labour market is cooling, which matters if your own income or job security depends on it. If this week's data, or Friday's Canadian jobs numbers, raises questions about your own cash flow, protection, or goals, that is a good reason to book a 30-minute session on Monday rather than react to one week's headlines.
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